How Small Innovations Shift Systems

I recently read a LinkedIn post on the concept of “Trojan mice” that my former IISC colleague Gibran Rivera brought into our midst several years ago. The idea is that small, unassuming experiments can bypass the defenses of rigid systems and create change more effectively than a single large “Trojan Horse.”

This immediately brought to mind the Three Horizons framework, especially what it calls “Horizon 2” (see image below). The core idea of Three Horizons is that systemic change unfolds as dominant systems (Horizon 1) decline and more regenerative alternatives (Horizon 3) take root. Between these sits Horizon 2, which I understand as innovations in the form of relatively small experiments that draw from the spirit of Horizon 3 and can help break the iron hold of Horizon 1.

What’s been helpful about the past few years of unraveling in this country is seeing this dynamic a bit more clearly in many networked collaborative change efforts that we at IISC support. If Horizon 2 is where the future first becomes visible, then our task is to notice, nurture, and connect these experiments. Here are three examples:

Bringing More Good Fire to the Land

For years now, we’ve supported both the Fire Adapted Communities Learning Network and the Indigenous Peoples Burning Network (IPBN) as they have worked to bring “good fire” back to the land. This includes proactive ‘low-intensity’ or ‘prescribed’ burns, known as ‘cultural burns’ in Indigenous contexts, that build resilience in forests and grasslands. You can find more information here about that practice. At a recent IPBN gathering we helped facilitate, great news was shared about how major state funding is now going to tribes in California to establish learning centers focused on prescribed burns as an alternative to the dominant “fire suppression” system (Horizon 1). In other words, the growth of prescribed burns (Horizon 2) is helping regenerative land stewardship (Horizon 3) move toward the mainstream.

Farming Local Solutions to Hunger

Another example comes from northern Michigan, where we support a collaborative network focused on hunger. For about 30 years, the Northwest Food Coalition has worked to ensure that food pantries in the region have enough food for those experiencing food insecurity. This reflects the dominant (Horizon 1) “emergency food” system at work. In recent years, through efforts to ensure that the food provided is not just caloric but also nutritious, a program known as Farm to Neighbor was created to source fresh produce from nearby farms to make available at food pantries. This is a clear Horizon 2 example. It advances a more resilient vision in which local farms help ensure no one goes hungry while supporting growers of non-commodity, more Earth-friendly crops (Horizon 3).

Being the Better World We Want to See

A last example comes from numerous multi-organizational change efforts that we support. In all of these efforts, we encourage the practice of the notion that “how we meet and treat each other” can be a taste of the better future we know we need and want. We are now seeing evidence of overly transactional conversations and relationships (Horizon 1) giving way to more “care and wellbeing-centered” practices (Horizon 2) that can seed new cultures and systems (Horizon 3) where people are not living in poverty, unhoused, neglected, or without the supports they need (and deserve) to contribute fully to community life.

As we continue our work in 2026, I will keep in mind and heart how we can intentionally weave connections across Horizon 2 experiments, so they reinforce one another. When small innovations remain isolated, they can be dismissed. When they are connected, they begin to form patterns, and patterns can become movements.

The invitation, then, is not to wait for Horizon 3 to arrive fully formed. It is to notice where it is already flickering into view through small, innovative experiments. It is to nurture those efforts, connect them, and protect them long enough for their logic to take root.

Systemic change rarely announces itself with a single dramatic shift. More often, it spreads gradually, through relationships, practice, and persistence. The work before us is to tend those second-horizon sparks until they become the future.